DEVELOPING A PLAN FOR THE PLANET
A BUSINESS PLAN FOR SUSTAINABLE LIVING
IAN CHAMBERS & JOHN HUMBLE
GOWER 2011
The Green Economics and Sustainable Growth Series
PART 2
PART I: UNDERSTANDING OUR CURRENT SITUATION
‘No man is an island of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less. Any man’s death diminishes me. Because I am involved in mankind. And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls: it tolls for thee.’
John Donne, 1624
Let’s start with an overview of our current situation, and in the next chapter examine in more depth each of the ten major global challenges and some of the solutions which are already being developed and implemented. First, lets look at the good news, and review our progress so far as a human race.
From flint chip to silicon chip
Looked at from any angle, the human race has come a long way as a civilization in the last 10,000 years. From flint-wielding hunter-gatherers to farming communities, to the point where we now have a civilisation that boasts major breakthroughs in food production, health, longevity and technology. The last 10,000 years has seen a true demonstration of the remarkable innovative and creative powers of the human race.
In the last 200 years, this innovation and creativity has accelerated at an even greater pace. The advent of aviation, a man on the moon and space exploration, silicon chip-equipped computers and computer technology, the Internet and global communications – all have contributed to an age where the human race has moved from a local village to the beginnings of a true global village. From flint chip to the silicon chip – the major advances in medical, food production, space travel and health are achievements of which the human race can be truly proud.
Looking back over history, the human race has shown an amazing ability to adapt, to cooperate, to develop, to create and to deliver when confronted with challenges whether they be environmental, social, cultural or spiritual. That’s the good news and that’s where it is important to start this review. Whatever challenges we faced in the past, the human race has been able to survive and prosper.
However, there is a problem …
Actually there are several problems. The wonderful advances in civilisation and technology have created challenges on Planet Earth that, as we have already seen, threaten to undo the work of centuries.
These challenges are all converging right now. Their interconnectivity is creating what some are calling the ‘perfect storm’. However, as we have already seen, this also creates the ‘perfect opportunity’ for the human race to ‘grasp the nettle’ and cooperate on an unprecedented scale to build a better, more sustainable world. We need to work together to create the means for survival to avoid this potential ‘perfect storm’.
In looking at this, it is again important to look at the issues of interconnectivity. The issue of global warming is closely linked to the increased extraction and use of carbon-based fuels such as oil, coal and wood. The scientific community has already developed a consensus on this issue, and it has received wide publicity. However, equally important, but under appreciated, is the relationship between increasing population and global warming.
The perfect storm?
As the human population increases there are simply more people using carbon-based fuels, resulting in more carbon emissions and therefore more global warming. When global population triples during a single life time – from 2.5 billion people in 1950, to over 6.8 billion in 2010 – then carbon emissions triple, bringing about the current crisis. The problem is compounded as carbon footprint increases when people move out of poverty, thus having more disposable income which currently generates more greenhouse gases.
Increasing population, as we have already seen, is also clearly impacting other resources such as land and water usage. More food, water and land are required to feed the increasing population. This causes increasing deforestation and desertification and steadily reduces the natural ‘sponge’ that trees provide to absorb CO2.
Earth’s vast oceans absorb huge amounts of CO2. However, the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are now increasing as such a rate that as the oceans absorb more they are actually becoming more acidic – a phenomenon measured in the sudden changes to the population of certain aquatic species and the destruction of coral reefs.
The earth’s oceans are also changed by the increasing levels of fresh water pouring in as glaciers and as the Arctic and Antarctic ice melts. This is reducing the salt content of the oceans, threatening not only marine life but also the flow of tides and currents. This could in turn affect weather patters in regions such as Europe, through its influence on some of Planet Earth’s weather control systems such as the Gulf Stream.
- 70% of water usage is for agricultural production and that water scarcity reduces food production, leading to shortages and potential conflicts that can exacerbate those shortages.
- The movement away from carbon-based fuels to bio-fuels produced from corn further increases the pressures on dwindling land and food and water supplies.
- An increasingly affluent population demands a greater supply of meat and other food resources, leading to more demand for animal feed and fewer crops available for humans.
- Food prices are driven up. The recent food riots seen in developing nations in Africa, Asia and South America reflect the social consequences.
This also then raises social issues. Is it fair and reasonable to ask people in developing countries to stop reduction in poverty levels and plans to increase levels of affluence to that of the European and North American populations, by reducing consumption and use of carbon-based fuels? This again highlights the importance of global cooperation to address the challenges. Action has to take place on a global, coordinated scale.
The rising scarcity of valuable resources also increases the likelihood of conflict. However, can we as a human race afford to engage in conflict, thus diverting scare resources, manpower and technology, at a time when coordinated action is required to address the global challenges we are facing? Given the unprecedented destructive capabilities of modern weapons and the great concentration of populations in urban centres this could cause irreparable damage to our survival – at the very time when unprecedented cooperation is required to ensue this survival.
Finally it is essential to consider the time factor. If we had 100 years to address these issues, then perhaps the traditional ways of negotiation and conflict resolution would be appropriate. However, scientists are already warning that global warming needs to be addressed comprehensively over the next 20 years if disaster is to be avoided. Shortages of water, food and energy are already becoming apparent on a global scale. Human population continues to grow, further accelerating the speed at which these changes are happening and the rate at which they must be addressed.
Crisis can also create opportunity
This chapter began with a summary of the massive advances that the human race has made as a civilisation: this is highlighted in that we, as a human race, have been able to adapt, innovate and cooperate. The news is therefore not all negative as the human race can use its innovative and cooperative capabilities to address these challenges. But we do not have time on our side. Action is often driven by a crisis or compelling event or events.
The human race now has that crisis, the compelling event or events driven by the prospect of the brewing ‘perfect storm’. For the first time in human history there is an increasing recognition that action needs to be taken on a global cooperative scale. No longer can the majority of countries afford to agree on the terms of a global agreement such as the Kyoto Treaty, with progress delayed by the disagreement of a powerful few.
The outcome of the UN Bali and Copenhagen conference on Climate Change in 2007 and 2009 provided hope that a more cooperative approach is possible. However, Bali and Copenhagen only tackled one of the global challenges being faced. The human race has recently seen a cooperative spirit and a willingness to put aside political and national agendas to address the global financial crisis which emerged in 2008. A similar approach has also been demonstrated in tackling the problem of ozone layer depletion and working together to address HIV/AIDS and polio. Cooperation is possible when the need is fully understood. At no other point in the history of human civilisation has a cooperative and coordinated approach to addressing the global challenges that we face as a civilization and as a planet been more apparent.