DEVELOPING A PLAN FOR THE PLANET
A BUSINESS PLAN FOR SUSTAINABLE LIVING
IAN CHAMBERS & JOHN HUMBLE
GOWER 2011
The Green Economics and Sustainable Growth Series
PART 6
Chapter 3: Executive Brief No. 2: Climate Change
Summary
The issue of Climate Change has moved quickly over the last five years from ‘is it real?,’ to ‘is it too late?’ Leading scientists have identified the rapid rise in greenhouse gas concentration – from 270 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 in the atmosphere at the beginning of the industrial Revolution, to over 380 ppm now – an increase of over 30% as caused by human activity. These increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap heat, and have raised the temperature on Planet Earth by almost one degree in this same period. Already the effects of even this one degree increase are being felt in changing weather patterns, melting polar icecaps and glaciers. This can potentially raise sea levels to catastrophic proportions.
The actions required are twofold. Firstly, reduce and eventually eliminate greenhouse gases being put into the atmosphere. The EU and the US have both set targets of 20% reduction by 2020, and 80% by 2050. It is estimated that this would achieve a capping of the CO2 in the atmosphere of 580 ppm CO2 and three degrees of global warming. Two degrees, however, has been identified as the maximum that can be allowed before catastrophic and irreversible Climate Change begins to occur. The challenge is to get these reduction targets consistent across the globe – for developed and developing countries – and to then ensure that they are achieved. Government, Business and People all have an important role to play in achieving these objectives using the ARROW approach – Avoid, Replace, Reduce, Offset, Watch and Monitor.
The second requirement is adaptation. Already, the impact of rising sea levels and weather patters are increasing. As temperatures continue to rise, the need to implement plans for adaptation to these changes is critical.
The current situation
v Temperatures are rising: The average global temperature on Planet Earth has increased by 0.8°C from pre-industrial levels. 40% of this temperature rise took over 150 years; while the final 60% required only the last 60 years. The temperature rises after 1975 is unprecedented, with the 11 highest recorded temperatures happening in the last 13 years.
v Temperature rises are linked to greenhouse gas emissions: Temperature increases have been directly linked to a similar increase in CO2 levels. The atmospheric concentration of carbon is now over 380 parts per million – against 270 ppm before the industrial revolution. On current trends the figure will pass 450ppm within a decade and will be more than 580ppm by 2050 due to increases in the emission of greenhouse gases by human beings. Amplification of the earth’s natural greenhouse effect by the build-up of greenhouse gases introduced by human activity has the potential to produce dramatic change in climate.
v Human activity is causing Climate Change: In the 20th century, the near quadrupling of human population and more than tripling of per capita CO2 emissions of greenhouse gases has created a situation where it is now agreed that human activity is causing Climate Change. The impacts in the following UN diagram show the range of consequences of Climate Change.
v Increasing impacts: As greenhouse gas levels and temperatures continue to rise, the damaging impacts on Planet Earth will increase.
v Projected impact of climate change:
Food: Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions; Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions; Falling crop yields in many developed regions.
Water: Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in many areas; Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa; Sea level rise threatens major cities.
Ecosystems: Extensive damage to coral reefs; Rising number of species face extinction.
Extreme weather events: Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves.
Risk of abrupt and major irreversible changes: Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system.
v Climate Change and the impact on Planet Earth’s oceans: The National Centre for Atmospheric Research estimate that 118 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide were absorbed by the earth’s oceans between 1800 and 1994 – a major contribution to reducing the impact of greenhouse gases. However, this is causing the oceans to become more acidic as the dissolved carbon dioxide becomes carbonic acid – a corrosive agent which eats away the shell of important species in the global food chain. Coral reefs under attack may face extinction with inevitable damaging side effects on ecological balance. One hundred and fifty marine scientists from 26 countries recently signed the Monaco Declaration, identifying the twin threats of global warming and ocean acidification as ‘the challenge of the century’.
v The Antarctic: The British Antarctic Survey reported in 2009 that the peninsular has warmed by more than 3°C in the past 50 years. A 1% loss of Antarctic land ice would probably raise sea levels by 65cm according to the Norwegian Polar Institute.
v The tipping points: There is also concern that the changes will not be simply incremental because if certain ‘tipping points’ are reached, then major catastrophic change such as sea level rises and collapse of the Gulf Stream which warms Europe could happen very quickly. There is increasing concern that some of these tipping points may have already been reached.
v Managing the impacts: Scientists around the world have also concluded that flooded cities, diminished food production and increasing storm damage all seem likely as a result of global warming and could affect the lives of billions of people. However, to date we have not taken significant action to address these potential impacts.
v Impact of industrialised nations: Most of the man-made global warming pollution currently in the atmosphere has come from industrialised nations.
v Impact of developing nations: Emissions from major developing countries such as China, India and Brazil are increasing rapidly, with China currently overtaking the USA as the largest emitter of CO2. If developing countries, with high population growth, follow the wasteful and inefficient western lifestyle model, the problems will clearly become worse.
v Getting agreement to act: Although the UN reports conclude that the majority of scientists agree that global warming is occurring and that it is caused by human activity, there is still significant confusion about Climate Change and the remedial actions required. This has lead to significant ‘analysis paralysis’ when what is required is decisive and globally coordinated action and discussion as to who should start first. It is clearly in everybody’s interests for a globally coordinated and rapidly deployed approach to greenhouse gas reduction to take place across both developed and developing nations.
v Adaptation: The impacts of Climate Change are already being felt – more destructive storms, rising sea levels and changing weather patterns. Despite this, emissions of fossil fuels continue to increase from an average of 1.3% per year in the 1990s to more than 3% per year from 2000 to 2008. Therefore, efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need to be accompanied by proactive adaptation plans in areas such as energy, water, buildings and transport.
Opportunities and Best Practice
KEY CONSIDERATIONS
v Alternative technologies are available: Alternative non-greenhouse gas-emitting technologies are increasingly available. For example, solar, wind, geothermal power and bio-fuels.
v Best practice precedents exist: The reduction in the ozone layer is an example of success when scientists and governments work constructively together on a global basis to tackle a global environmental issue.
v Progress can be made: The identification of the challenge of acid rain led to coordinated political action for the introduction of emission controls on the industry and a switch to natural gas (from coal) for power generation. The result has been significant declines in emissions of sulphur dioxide emissions which are the gases largely to blame for creating acid rain. As a result of the halving of levels of acidic sulphur in British waters in the last 15 years, fish have begun to return to rivers and streams that were once acidic waterways.
v Ambitious timeframes can be met: The ability to develop and roll out new technologies quickly is illustrated by the fact that only 20 years after their introduction, over half the world’s population, more than 3.5 billion people, use mobile phones. There are already over one billion computers and internet users. Rapid deployment of technology is possible where focused, globally coordinated efforts are deployed.
v Governments are starting to respond: The EU’s long-term strategy is that 20% of energy must come from renewables and 10% of transport fuels will be bio-fuels. EU emissions must be reduced to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. Many states in the USA are developing their own strategies. President Obama indicates the US could soon be leading the battle against Climate Change. He supports a Cap and Trade system to limit carbon dioxide emissions and has called for an overhaul of US industry which would require a $150 billion investment in renewable energy (see further review of Cap and Trade in the Role of Government section).
v Preferred maximum increase in temperature: It has been estimated that average global temperature rise could be between 2°C and 6°C – depending on how quickly the activities impacting the rises are curbed. The estimated maximum temperature rise that Planet Earth can sustain without moving into this catastrophic change has been identified as 2°C. It is important to note that this is not a ‘safe’ level of warning; it is merely ‘less dangerous than what lies beyond’. The need for urgent action on a global scale to minimise the temperature rises is therefore critical.
v What greenhouse gas emission reductions are required to stay below the 2°C threshold? A number of estimates have been made about reduction levels and these lie in the range between 60% and 90% by 2050. The EU has set targets at 80% reduction and 550 CO2 levels. Environmentalist George Monbiot, in his book Heat, recommends a much more aggressive approach of 90% by 2030 to stabilise at what could be viewed as a safer CO2 level of 450 ppm to achieve a maximum of 2°C increase. It is essential that effective targets are agreed and rapid and coordinated global action is taken to achieve these reduction levels.
v How fast could change be driven? Achieving an effective balance between the risk of not changing fast enough, thereby increasing the chance of not achieving the 2°C maximum increase, and too fast, thereby not allowing the effective management of the changes required is crucial. An effective balance must therefore be achieved in driving to achieve these objectives.
OPPORTUNITIES
There are a wide range of activities and solutions which can be used to manage Climate Change. Below are some examples on which to focus for maximum impact to be made:
v Focus on high-impact countries: The top 20 high greenhouse-emitting countries contribute over 70% of current greenhouse gases and therefore are the top priority for action. There has been significant debate about whether it is the responsibility of the developed nations, which have emitted most to the greenhouse gases to date, to take action, as they commenced their industrialisation much earlier; or the emerging developing nations to curb their rapidly increasing emissions. The answer is to focus on the countries which are currently the highest emitters of greenhouse gases – both developed and developing nations.
v Focus on forests: Equally important is that 20% of greenhouse gas emissions are coming from the burning of forests (that is, deforestation). Therefore, added to this list must be the urgent need to address this problem in the key regions where large-scale deforestation is taking place: the Amazon, South East Asia and Russia.
v Communication: People change behaviour when they understand why it is important. Effective communication is required to enable people to understand why change is important, and that they can make a difference.
v Make it easy: Making it easy for people to make these changes is a key role that can be played through government education and legislation, as well as through innovative business products and services. This can never be underestimated as ‘ease of use’, as well as understanding, is a key enabling large-scale change.
EXAMPLES OF BEST PRACTICES
v Commitment to change: EU countries, for example, are making significant progress and are an important example of best practice. However, some state governments in the US (for example, California) are also leading the way. The task is now to build on the success of these countries and states and establish targets from the post-Bali consultation process, to which all countries globally can commit themselves.
v Taking direct action: In 2009, the British government announced a plan to provide cavity wall and roof insulation to all properties by 2015. 400,000 households a year will be fitted. A quarter of the UK’s total CO2 emissions come from homes. A further important policy decision was made by the British Government in 2009. A commitment was made that up to four coal-fired power stations would be fitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS) that takes the carbon dioxide from the burning coal and stores it underground. The real challenge is not the technology. It is creating the right environment for Government, Business and People to want to make the changes.
v Combining the three agents of change: Another best practice example comes from Australia, which has legislated to phase out non-energy saving light bulbs by 2012, with a forecast 40% energy saving as a result. This is a good example of the three agents of change. Business innovation and funding developed the technology, government has created the suitable legislative environment for change, and consumers support the initiative through their buying behaviour.
The role of Government, Business and people
GOVERNMENT
The contribution of government is important at all levels – international, national and state. The EU countries and an increasing number of American states are using a variety of approaches including regulation, legislation, tax and rewards.
v Lead by example: