Book Review

Introduction

In Part 4 of A New Green History of the World: The Environment and the Collapse of Great Civilizations, Clive Ponting tells us that “Until about 300 years ago the world’s population never increased by more than about 0.1% a year – 1/20^th of the current rate.” “The 18^th century saw the most rapid growth in history to that date, bringing the total to 900 million by 1825.” “In China, development was based on the dry farming of millet. The Chinese developed the most sophisticated agriculture in the world, based on techniques such as crop rotation, producing very high yields from intensively farmed land.” “In England agricultural prices were rising from about 1500 as shortages started to develop and real wages fell by half in the period between 1500 and 1620, causing immense distress. By the 1620s population growth slowed as malnutrition and higher mortality caused by inadequate food supplies took their toll.” “The same symptoms can be found in France when a crisis was reached early in the 17^th century. Food prices continued to rise, land holdings got smaller and real wages fell drastically. A series of severe famines between 1690 and 1710 demonstrated that population was still higher than the agricultural system could regularly feed.” “The most important influence on the outcome of the harvest and therefore the state of society was the weather. Crops were affected not only by annual variations in the weather but also by the longer-term cycles in the earth’s climate, which could cause widespread dislocation of agricultural systems.” “There was a warm period in the 2000 years after 5000 BCE. A general decline in temperatures set in, reaching a low point between 900 and 300 BCE, a time of very high rainfall. A warm period reached its height about 1200 when the tree line in central Europe was about 150 metres higher than today and vines grew in England as far north as the Severn. A steady decline followed, reaching a long low between 1430 and 1850, the ‘Little Ice Age’, when average temperatures were between one and two degrees centigrade lower than at present.” “Throughout Europe the majority of people lived on a maximum of about 2,000 calories a day, but gross inequalities within society meant that most lived on far less than this. In some areas of France in the 18^th century people lived on a diet that was far worse than that of their gathering and hunting ancestors.” “In France in the late 17^th century between 1/5^th and ¼ of the population died before their first birthday, half before they were 20 and only 1 in 10 survived until they were 60.” “In France between 970 and 1100 there were 60 years of famine at a time of expanding agricultural output and in Tuscany between 1351 and 1767 there were 111 years of famine but only 16 good harvests.” “When food supplies failed the scale of the subsequent tragedy could be immense. In 1696-97 in Finland between ¼ and ⅓ of the population died from famine. The same proportion died in Bengal in 1769-70 and in Ethiopia between 1888 and 1892.” “In Europe in 1314 the harvest was reasonable but the weather in 1315 was dreadful. The resulting food shortage brought catastrophe to most of Europe. Wheat prices rose to 3 times their normal level and in some places they were over 8 times higher.” “The Irish famine illustrates two important aspects of food supplies: it was possible, even in a supposedly advanced area of the world such as Europe in the 19^th century for a million people to starve to death; and that famine is not a simple matter of food shortage. There was plenty of food in Ireland –those that died could not afford to buy it.”

 

A NEW GREEN HISTORY OF THE WORLD

THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE COLLAPSE OF GREAT CIVILISATIONS

CLIVE PONTING

VINTAGE BOOKS              2007

PART IV

 

Chapter 6: The Long Struggle

• Agriculture did not solve the problem of producing enough food to meet the needs of the world’s population. Until about the last 2 centuries in every part of the world nearly everyone lived on the edge of starvation.
• Throughout this period, the rise and fall of empires and the emergence of new states and their decline, the underlying economic and social conditions remained broadly unchanged for thousands of years.
• Although in areas less environmentally sensitive than Mesopotamia, the Indus valley, and the jungles of Mesoamerica a complete collapse of society did not take place, there was still a high price to pay in the wholesale loss of life.
• All but about 5% of the people in the world were peasants dependent upon the land and living a life characterised by high infant mortality, low life expectancy and chronic undernourishment, with the ever-present threat of famine and the outbreak of virulent epidemics.
• The food they ate was almost entirely vegetable in origin and the dietary staples were the 3 major crops of the world – rice in Asia, maize in the Americas and wheat in Europe.
• There were severe limits on the scale of other activities and the numbers of soldiers, priests and craftsmen that could be supported by the peasantry.

 

Food and population

• The human condition around the world varied from place to place and period to period depending on the balance between agricultural output and the population level.
• Continuous cultivation of the same area lowered soil fertility.
• A vicious circle was established between the need to use as much land as possible to grow crops for direct human consumption, the limited amount of land available for animals and the lack of animal manures to maintain soil fertility, exacerbated by problems of distributing food.
• The total amount that could be stored was limited and losses were high because of inadequate facilities. Crop failure in one area could not be alleviated by moving in supplies from elsewhere because of transportation problems, exacerbated by the elite who enforced collection through taxes, tithes and other forms of expropriation, often leaving the peasantry with insufficient food for survival.
• In the long term, population could increase to a level where it was almost impossible for a large part of the population to obtain an adequate diet. Food supply and population were rarely in balance.
• Until about 300 years ago the world’s population never increased by more than about 0.1% a year – 1/20^th of the current rate.
• More often than not, increasing population put ever greater pressure on a limited agricultural system, producing more poverty and malnutrition, mass starvation and death until the population was more in balance with farming output.
• World population rose to about 550 million by 1600. For the next century a deteriorating climate affected food production and restricted the growth in numbers so that the world’s population in 1700 was just under 700 million.
• The 18^th century saw the most rapid growth in history to that date, bringing the total to 900 million by 1825.

 

China

• In China, development was based on the dry farming of millet.
• The Chinese developed the most sophisticated agriculture in the world, based on techniques such as crop rotation, producing very high yields from intensively farmed land.
• By about 1200 China was the largest, most literate and most advanced country in the world, allowing the population to grow from about 50 million under the Han to about 115 million in the early 13^th century.
• Yields were about as high as was possible before the introduction of modern artificial fertilisers.
• Output could be improved by only small improvements in productivity and by cultivating new land, often of marginal quality.
• The mass of the population were dependent on a system that could produce only a low level of food for each individual. Disasters like the Mongol invasion resulted in about 35 million Chinese deaths.
• Mass epidemics in 1586-89 and 1633-44 killed about 20% of the people on each occasion, reducing the pressure of population for a while.
• The amount of food available per person in 1850 was about the same as 300 years earlier and the overwhelming majority of the population lived permanently on the verge of starvation.

 

Europe

• Chinese agriculture was able to maintain a large number of people on the brink of starvation. Medieval European agriculture was a low productivity system that kept a smaller number of people in the same condition. There was a tendency for the fertility of the soil to fall back to a level where the risk of crop failure was very high.
• European societies were successful in limiting their populations through late or fewer marriages. Nevertheless Europe was frequently overpopulated in relation to food supply.
• In 1000, the population of Europe was about 40 million, doubling over the next 3 centuries to 80 million in 1300, due to a major increase in the amount of land under cultivation, rather than improvements in productivity.
• The supply of new land was virtually exhausted in the late 13^th century, and yields were falling as more land was put under crops as a short-term measure to try to increase food production.
• Cereal prices rose and many people suffered from under-employment in an overcrowded labour market and lived at a very low level of subsistence.
• The nobility and clergy were taking about ½ of the peasant’s output of food through tithes, rents, taxes and working on the lord’s estate.
• At the beginning of the 14^th century there is clear evidence of falling population brought about through permanent malnutrition and near starvation during the famine of 1316-17, the Black Death in 1346 and the subsequent recurrences of the plague for the rest of the century.
• By 1600 the population was near 100 million, higher than in 1300, even though there had been little improvement in agricultural productivity.
• In England agricultural prices were rising from about 1500 as shortages started to develop and real wages fell by half in the period between 1500 and 1620, causing immense distress.
• By the 1620s population growth slowed as malnutrition and higher mortality caused by inadequate food supplies took their toll.
• The same symptoms can be found in France when a crisis was reached early in the 17^th century. Food prices continued to rise, land holdings got smaller and real wages fell drastically. A series of severe famines between 1690 and 1710 demonstrated that population was still higher than the agricultural system could regularly feed.

 

Climate, food and population

• In agricultural societies around the world the outcome of the harvest was crucial. A bad harvest was a calamity but two in succession could bring disaster. Inadequate quantities of seeds to plant for the next crop increased the chance of disaster the next year.
• Under such circumstances large numbers, already badly nourished, easily succumbed to the outbreaks of disease that normally followed a period of bad harvests.
• The most important influence on the outcome of the harvest and therefore the state of society was the weather. Crops were affected not only by annual variations in the weather but also by the longer-term cycles in the earth’s climate, which could cause widespread dislocation of agricultural systems.
• Since the end of the last ice age there have been alternating periods of warmer and colder weather in Europe.
• There was a warm period in the 2000 years after 5000 BCE. A general decline in temperatures set in, reaching a low point between 900 and 300 BCE, a time of very high rainfall. A warm period reached its height about 1200 when the tree line in central Europe was about 150 metres higher than today and vines grew in England as far north as the Severn.
• A steady decline followed, reaching a long low between 1430 and 1850, the ‘Little Ice Age’, when average temperatures were between one and two degrees centigrade lower than at present. 
• The Greenland settlement flourished during the warm period with a population of about 3,000, almost 300 farms, 16 churches and even a cathedral. But it remained a marginal and highly vulnerable society, dependent on the mild weather for its very existence.
• The overall decline in temperatures had its greatest impact in Scandinavia, where the reduced growing season made many areas extremely marginal for growing crops.
• The worsened growing conditions meant a significant reduction in food production, leading to increased malnutrition, widespread famine and death.

 

Food and famine

• For the overwhelming majority of people, food meant vegetables.
• A medieval cow in Europe produced 1/6^th of the milk and ¼ of the meat of a modern animal.
• In China all but 2% of the calorific value of the diet came from vegetables, primarily rice.
• As late as 1870, 70% of the French diet consisted of bread and potatoes and in 1900 only about 1/5^th of the calories came from animal products.
• Throughout Europe the majority of people lived on a maximum of about 2,000 calories a day, but gross inequalities within society meant that most lived on far less than this. In some areas of France in the 18^th century people lived on a diet that was far worse than that of their gathering and hunting ancestors.
• For a century or more after the plagues of the 14^th century people were reasonably well fed because of reduction in numbers but standards fell dramatically between 1500 and 1800.
• Food problems were exacerbated by animal disease such as the epidemic of rinderpest which spread from Russia into western Europe between 1709 and 1714, killing 1½ million cattle.
• For human beings a permanent state of poor diet led to constant malnutrition, poor health, susceptibility to disease and a continuing high level of mortality.
• In France in the late 17^th century between 1/5^th and ¼ of the population died before their first birthday, half before they were 20 and only 1 in 10 survived until they were 60.
• In China in the 2000 years between 108 BCE and 1910 there were 1,828 years in which famines involved at least one province of the country.
• In France between 970 and 1100 there 60 years of famine at a time of expanding agricultural output and in Tuscany between 1351 and 1767 there were 111 years of famine but only 16 good harvests.
• When food supplies failed the scale of the subsequent tragedy could be immense. In 1696-97 in Finland between ¼ and ⅓ of the population died from famine. The same proportion died in Bengal in 1769-70 and in Ethiopia between 1888 and 1892.
• In Europe in 1314 the harvest was reasonable but the weather in 1315 was dreadful. The resulting food shortage brought catastrophe to most of Europe. Wheat prices rose to 3 times their normal level and in some places they were over 8 times higher.
• Many of the poor could not buy food but for even the wealthy no food was available.
• Animals were killed in large numbers as feed ran out.
• The poor were dying in large numbers or turned to robbery in an attempt to get food. Some people were driven to cannibalism.
• Animal disease added to the carnage, killing about 70% of the sheep in some areas and from 1319-22 two thirds of Europe’s population of oxen died.
• The last severe crisis to affect the whole of Europe came in 1816-17 due to the appalling weather across Europe caused by the volcanic dust from the eruption of the Tamboro volcano in Indonesia in 1815.
• Crop failure was widespread, wheat prices doubled from an already high level and the real wages of peasants fell drastically. There were widespread food riots in England, France and Belgium in 1816 and across most of the continent the following year.
• Death rates rose and epidemics increased.
• The population of Ireland rose 10-fold from 800,000 in 1500 to 8½ million in 1846. There were about 650,000 landless labourers living in permanent destitution and most of the rural population lived in squalid, one-room cabins.
• In the early 19^th century potatoes took up about 40% of the total crop area in Ireland and constituted the sole food of nearly half the population. Disease and poor weather brought about widespread crop failure in 1739-41 when about 500,000 people died.
• By the 1830s poor harvests were becoming the norm, which meant that even in good years a high proportion of the population would be on the edge of starvation, particularly during the early summer before the new crop was ready.
• Catastrophe was triggered in June 1845 by the arrival from America of potato blight. By August the disease had spread throughout Europe and for the next two years virtually no potatoes were on sale anywhere.
• The failure of the 1845 crop in Ireland was only partial but that of 1846 was almost total.
• About 1 million people died from lack of food or from diseases that affected the under-nourished population. Millions emigrated and by the end of the 19^th century the population of Ireland was 4½ million.
• The Irish famine illustrates two important aspects of food supplies: it was possible, even in a supposedly advanced area of the world such as Europe in the 19^th century for a million people to starve to death; and that famine is not a simple matter of food shortage. There was plenty of food in Ireland –those that died could not afford to buy it.
• In the late 20^th century famines in Ethiopia, the Horn of Africa and the Sahel there was plenty of food in the country and exports continued. People were unable to obtain food either because their crop had failed or because they could not afford to buy food at the high prices which were a consequence of the famine.
• Gathering and hunting groups do not regard food as something to be traded but as available to all within the group. The problem of entitlement arose once ownership of land and food became the norm when settled, agricultural societies emerged.
• The dependence of these societies on a limited range of crops increased the risk of failure and when this happened the poorest members of society were unable to obtain food.

 

New crops, improved farming

• An existence under the constant threat of starvation and in the face of the daily reality of an inadequate diet and malnutrition has been the common lot of most of humanity since the development of agriculture.
• Just as important though was the introduction of new crops and animals, which widened the agricultural base, provided greater stability against failure and improved food output.
• One major beneficial effect of the spread of new crops was that the subsistence base of many societies became wider, reducing the risk of catastrophic crop failure and famine. Many of the foods, such as tomatoes and chillies, were rich in vitamins and could help to reduce the risk of some deficiency diseases.
• In many cases the new higher-yielding crops, rather than providing more calories per head, allowed the population to grow more quickly until it was out of balance with food supplies.

 

The limited escape from the long struggle

• Only slowly, and in the relatively recent past, did a few societies begin to escape from a situation where a large part of the population lived on a poor diet barely adequate for a minimum subsistence and under constant threat of starvation.
• The population of the Netherlands doubled from 1 million in 1500 to 2 million in 1650. New land was brought into cultivation and more intensive farming methods were introduced. Yields were about ⅔ higher than in England. However, much of the extra food required was imported.
• The real revolution in the European food situation came after 1850 with the importation of guano and other fertilizers and in Europe’s ability to control an increasing share of the world’s resources.

 

Chapter 7: Ways of Thought