Book Review

Below you will find Part 8 of the review of Climate Change: Turning up the Heat by A. Barrie Pittock. These are some snippets: “Adaptation is necessary because climate change is already happening, and the long lag times in the climate system make further climate change, and especially sea-level rise, inevitable.” “Because there are uncertainties about future amounts and effects of climate change and sea-level rise, adaptation must be a risk management strategy, which takes account of the probabilities as well as of the costs and benefits.” “In the broadest global terms, our ability to adapt is what must determine the targets we set for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, that is, mitigation policies should aim to avoid situations where we exceed the limits of adaptability.” “There are some who argue that human inventiveness means that we can adapt to almost any climate change, and therefore we do not need to reduce emissions. Other argue that we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions very rapidly if only we have the will, and so do not need to adapt. The fact is that both strategies are needed, and both require a good measure of technological innovation and resourcefulness. The problem of coping with climate change is so complex, especially as it interacts with other environmental and socio-economic problems, that no single solution is sufficient. In particular, both adaptation and mitigation have essential roles to play.”

 

CLIMATE CHANGE

TURNING UP THE HEAT

BARRIE PITTOCK

EARTHSCA/CSIRO PUBLISHING         2005

PART VIII

 

Chapter 7: Adaptation: Living With Climate Change

Adaptation concepts and strategies

Adaptation is an automatic or planned response to change that minimises the adverse effects and maximises any benefits. It is one of the two possible means of coping with human-induced climate change and seal-level rise. The other option is to reduce the magnitude of human-induced climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This is called mitigation and is discussed in the next chapter. Adaptation is essential to cope with the climate change and sea-level rise that we cannot avoid now and in the near future, while mitigation would limit the extent of future climate change.

Adaptation is necessary because climate change is already happening, and the long lag times in the climate system make further climate change, and especially sea-level rise, inevitable. This further climate change is already built in to the system by past greenhouse gas emissions, that is, we are already committed to it. The effect happens decades to centuries after the cause and cannot readily be stopped. Further change is also made inevitable by the long time, at least several decades, between deciding to reduce emissions, and the socio-economic system changing enough to actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions sufficiently to stop making the situation worse.

Very substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will be necessary before greenhouse gas concentrations stop going up. In fact, for centuries to come atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will not fall much below whatever maximum levels are reached, even after major reductions in emissions. This is due to the large reservoirs of carbon dioxide in the ocean, soil and biosphere, which are in the decadal time-scale equilibrium with the atmosphere. The permanent sinks are much slower to act. In short, we cannot simply turn off climate change, so we must learn to live with it. That is why adaptation is essential.

Because there are uncertainties about future amounts and effects of climate change and sea-level rise, adaptation must be a risk management strategy, which takes account of the probabilities as well as of the costs and benefits. Moreover, adaptation has limits, beyond which it is too expensive or even unacceptable in terms of the changes it requires. For example, one adaptation to increasing flooding due to sea-level rise in low-lying island countries would be to emigrate, but that may be unacceptable for the people who would have to leave their homelands, and may not be welcomed as a solution by potential host countries.

If our ability to adapt reaches its limits we have an unacceptable or damaging situation that, at least at the local level, could be considered ‘dangerous’. That can only be avoided if we can reduce the level of climate change so as to stay within the limits of adaptability. In the broadest global terms, our ability to adapt is what must determine the targets we set for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, that is, mitigation policies should aim to avoid situations where we exceed the limits of adaptability. For this reason, understanding adaptability is vital, not only so that people can adapt where possible, but also to determine how urgently, and by how much we must reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

• Methods of adaptation will vary with the activity or industry, with location, and on different scales in time and space. As climate change increases it will lead to extremes that are outside the limits of natural variability.
• Efficient adaptation strategies must be guided by an understanding of what to expect, that is, by informed foresight.
• A handbook on methods for climate change impacts assessments and adaptation strategies has been developed by the United nations Environment Program which discusses the principles and strategies for adaptation. These can be summarised in eight alternative but not exclusive strategies:

1. Bear losses. This is the baseline response of ‘doing nothing’.
2. Share losses. This involves a wider community in sharing the losses.
3. Modify the threat. For climate change, the major modification possible to reduce the threat is to slow the rate of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and eventually stabilising greenhouse concentrations in the atmosphere.
4. Prevent effects. Examples for agriculture would be changes in crop management practices such as increased irrigation, additional fertiliser, and pest and disease control.
5. Change use. For example, a farmer may choose to switch to crop varieties more adapted to lower soil moisture.
6. Change location. For example, major crops and farming regions could be relocated away from areas of increased aridity and heat to areas that are currently cooler and which may become more attractive for some crops in the future.
7. 7.      Research.
8. Educate, inform, and encourage behavioural change. Water conservation and fire prevention campaigns and regulations are already adaptive trends in countries such as Australia.

 

Costs and benefits of adaptation

• Let there be no mistake about it: adaptation to climate change will cost money, time, effort and changes to how and why we do things. Adaptation will usually require planning and investment in new techniques, new infrastructure and/or new habits and lifestyles.
• Advantages must be weighed against the costs of adaptation. Adaptation may cause problems that lead to negative effects on other people or activities.
• Climate change will likely increase the incidence of heavy rain events, interspersed with possibly more arid conditions reducing vegetation cover on land.
• This may lead to increased soil erosion. Planting trees would hold the soil, reduce surface wind speeds, prevent erosion and provide shade for animals.
• In some situations planting more trees will reduce dryland salinisation, which occurs in some countries due to rising water tables that bring salty groundwater near the surface, where the water evaporates and leaves salt.
• Trees use more water than grass so they may reduce runoff to the rivers, and thus water supply downstream.

 

Implementation

• Adaptation can be purely reactive, autonomous or automatic in response to some perceived change in climate. In natural systems this is the only type of adaptation, although humans can intervene to facilitate adaptation, in which case the systems become managed.
• In many situations farmers already adapt to variations in seasons on a year-to-year basis, by planting later in the season if it is unusually cold or dry, or applying irrigation in dry years.
• Where climate is changing longer-term adaptive strategies will be more appropriate, such as changes in crop cultivars or varieties, diversification, or even changing crops or activities altogether.
• Optimal adaptation strategies will only be adopted if there is a degree of foresight as to what is likely to happen and how it will affect people. Confidence is needed that the projected climate changes will occur, with understanding of possibilities and alternatives.
• Uncertainty can never be totally eliminated, so any strategy must contain an element of hedging one’s bets, by doing something that will be beneficial even if climate change does not happen quite as expected. Diversification is such a strategy.
• Agreement will also be necessary that the cost/benefit ratio for action is favourable, and the necessary human, economic and technical capacity to act must exist. The first task in seeking optimal adaptation strategies is to become better informed. Well-targeted research, to address all relevant questions for the decision-maker in the local situation, is essential.

 

Box 7: Adaptation of water supply in Western Australia

• The south-west of Western Australia has already experienced the effects of climate change: in the 1970s a decrease in rainfall of roughly 10 to 20% resulted in a 40 to 50% reduction in inflow to the city of Perth’s water supply, and this has not returned to previous levels in the past three decades.
• Following recommendations of a review paper by Brian Sadler (now Chair of the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative) and others in 1987, the Water Authority of Western Australia adopted a strategy that effectively assumed that the rainfall and yield would continue to decline.
• As Brian Sadler stated in 2003 ‘The 1987 decision by water managers was controversial at the time and remained do for many years. However, against what has transpired, a decline of some 50% in streamflow by 2002, not 2040, the decision was far from extreme.’
• It is a good example of what Sadler calls ‘informed adaptation’, which is subject to adjustment as new information comes to light. Consistent with this approach, the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (see: http://www.ioci.org.au/) was set up by the Western Australia government in 1998 to investigate the reasons for the decline, methods of seasonal forecasting in the region, and the possible future implications of the enhanced greenhouse effect.

 

Effects of different rates of climate change

• Rapid climatic change allows less time to adapt than slow change of the same eventual magnitude, and may incur larger costs in terms of investment in new farming practices, rezoning and new design standards for engineered structures such as buildings, bridges, drains, dams and levees.
• Human beings find it psychologically and politically easier to respond appropriately to climate change if it is slow and well established statistically, than if it is rapid but less clearly part of some long-term change.
• Studies concerning the effects of rates of change on natural and human systems are essential to understand what faces us in the 21^st century and beyond, especially if rapid changes occur beyond some threshold warming.
• Questions arising include: How quickly can societies adapt and change, and at what social and financial costs? What is necessary to motivate behavioural change, and how can this motivation be increased? How dependent is it on reducing uncertainties and on learning from recent experience? To what extent will people respond to theoretical projections rather than past experiences? How can humans facilitate desirable adaptive change in erstwhile natural systems?
• So far, we cannot answer these questions.

 

Equity issues in adaptation

• Adaptation raises serious questions about equity between countries and even within countries.
• Equity is already an issue in some Pacific Island countries that are moving roads and buildings further inland to avoid damaging storm surges, which they attribute to sea-level rise and climate change.
• They say they are not responsible for climate change, but the rich countries are, so the rich countries should be paying the costs of adaptation.
• The government of Tuvala in 2001 asked Australia to consider taking migrants from their very low lying atolls, where people are already feeling threatened by sea-level rise. So far Australia has refused to give such an undertaking, instead asking for more proof that climate change is responsible.
• Rich developed countries in general have more capacity to adapt. This is because they can afford the expense of new systems to counter adverse impacts, they can replace old systems and infrastructure made unworkable by climate change, and they can compensate losers through disaster relief, internal migration, employment programs, retraining and so forth.
• Poor countries tend to be located at low latitudes, where crops and natural ecosystems are already near the highest temperatures on Earth.
• There is little prospect of importing, or even breeding, crops that can tolerate even higher temperatures because the genetic material does not exist and would be difficult to engineer.
• Many of these countries are subject to tropical cyclone and flood damage to a greater extent than temperate countries.
• Benito Muller of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies summarised the problem:

v  In the Northern hemisphere the equity problem is regarded to be the issue of allocating emission mitigation targets; in the South, the concern – backed by many governments – is above all about the discrepancy between the responsibility for, and the sharing of climate impact burdens.

v  In the industrialized countries there is a widely held ‘ecological view’ of the problem. Environmental integrity (‘to do justice to nature’) is the overriding moral objective.

v  The reality in the South is quite different: climate change has primarily come to be seen as a human welfare problem. The harm is against humans, it is largely other-inflicted, and it is not life-style, but life-threatening.

v  The paramount inequity is one between human victims and human culprits.

• The first priority is the welfare of their people in the face of increasing climatic disasters and the need for ongoing economic development. What these poorer countries ask for, in return for limiting their greenhouse gas emissions, is help in disaster management and relief, development aid, assistance with adaptation to climate change and access to new less carbon-intensive technology.

 

Enhancing adaptive capacity

• Ability to adapt depends on the state of development. Enhancing adaptive capacity requires similar actions as promotion of sustainable development, including:

v  Improved access to resources.

v  Reduction of poverty.

v  Reducing inequities in wealth and resources between groups.

v  Improved information and education.

v  Improved infrastructure (roads, power supplies, etc).

v  Assurance that responses are comprehensive and inclusive of the people, not just technical.

v  Active involvement of all parties to ensure that actions are related to local needs and resources.

v  Improved institutional capacity and efficiency.

• All investments in growth and development need to take account of possible climate change and sea-level rise impacts and factor in ways to optimise the situation.
• Most capital investments in buildings and infrastructure have return periods or lifetimes of decades or more. Therefore they must be designed and located to take account of future changes in climate. If not, they will need to be written off and replaced before their design life is complete, with great economic cost.
• There are some who argue that human inventiveness means that we can adapt to almost any climate change, and therefore we do not need to reduce emissions.
• Other argue that we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions very rapidly if only we have the will, and so do not need to adapt.
• The fact is that both strategies are needed, and both require a good measure of technological innovation and resourcefulness.
• The problem of coping with climate change is so complex, especially as it interacts with other environmental and socio-economic problems, that no single solution is sufficient. In particular, both adaptation and mitigation have essential roles to play.

 

Chapter 8: Mitigation: Limiting Climate Change