Seeking Sustainability – Willis Ceramics

Book review

In Seeking Sustainability in an Age of Complexity Graham Harris explains why sustainability is hard and why ‘collapse’ can occur. In the last 20 years the theory of complexity has been developed – complex systems science (CSS) speaks to natural systems and particularly to ecological, social and economic systems and their interaction. Due to the growing concern over the huge changes occurring in the global environment, such as climate change, deforestation, habitat fragmentation and loss of biodiversity, Graham Harris sets out what has been learned in an attempt to understand the implications of these changes, and suggests ways to move forward. This book discusses a number of emerging tools for the management of ‘unruly’ complexity, that facilitate stronger regional dialogues about knowledge and values, that will be of interest to ecologists, sociologists, economists, natural resource managers and scientists in state and local governments, as well as to those involved in water and landscape management.

Graham Harris is director of ESE Systems Pty Ltd. In Tasmania, Adjunct Professor at the Centre for Environment at the University of Tasmania and an Honorary Research Professor at the Centre for Sustainable Water Management at Lancaster University, UK.

SEEKING SUSTAINABILITY IN AN AGE OF COMPLEXITY

GRAHAM HARRIS

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS 2007

PART I

Chapter 1: Preamble: The World We Are In

From the first members of the human species wandering the African Savannahs down to the present day we have witnessed ice ages, extreme events of various kinds and a plethora of cultural, political, historical and other changes.
Things are different at the beginning of the third millennium as we have a nexus of social, economic, technological and environmental trends the like of which has not been seen before.
We are approaching global constraints on our activities, particularly through our modification of global cycles of energy, water and nutrients. We have unprecedented global connectivity through advanced transportation and telecommunications systems. Our social organization and our economic activity have grown to the point where we have reached and exploited just about every corner of the globe.
In the past 30 years there has been a sea change in our relationship with the planet on which we live. This is why I am going to argue in this book that there is something different this time, something that is a challenge we have not faced before.
There is something qualitatively and quantitatively different this time in terms of the nature of the constraints, the speed of change, and the magnitude and complexity of the tasks we face if we are to achieve sustainability.
There are both long-term trends in the human condition – population growth, cultural development, global exploration, resource use – and cyclical patterns of political and economic activity and technological development.
Human societies have grown and collapsed many times in human history. The causes of growth and collapse are many and varied. Some of the past collapses have been associated with regional environmental degradation, such as deforestation and soil erosion; in other cases social and economic factors have dominated.
The one long-term trend that is focusing minds at the present time is population growth, resource use and the possibility of global change. For the first time in history we have the potential to make irreparable changes to the entire global fabric. The constraints are now global as well as regional.
We live in a time of rapidly increasing complexity and of changing relationships, both between ourselves as individuals and as global communities and between ourselves and the natural world.
We should not lose sight of the successes of the modern era. Life really was ‘nasty, brutish and short’ for all before the advent of Western humanist ideals. But the fact that we have a set of United Nations Millennium Development Goals is an indication that there is still much to be done.
One of the major themes of this book will be the importance of regional, local and individual actions and the ways in which they determine larger-scale outcomes.
Relationships, collaboration, trust and social capital are the keys to success in this more complex technological, social, environmental and economic context in which we all live. The position I take is one of attempting to understand and explain complexity and systems behaviour.
We must now accept and cope with the greatly increased complexity at all levels in our lives: individually, at community level, nationally and internationally. There must be a strong dialogue between institutions and individuals in a changing world.
To understand how we got here requires an appreciation of social, economic and intellectual history because the present situation has deep historical and contingent roots.
Each new technological advance and each new cycle of development brought periods of change; the early cycles of the industrial revolution were no exception. It was also a period of great social and economic change.
Even if we determined to change our ways and become sustainable overnight, it would take generations to achieve the result. Ideas, concepts and values are slow to change. Drastic cuts in global carbon dioxide emissions do not lead to immediate reductions in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere because of the long residence times involved.
In a time when nature seemed boundless and threatening the plan was to have dominion over the natural world, to subdue it and exploit it for human benefit. We were highly successful in this aim.
As well as the many social changes during that decade – including changing attitudes to nature and the environment – Tim Flannery has shown that the global climate went through a ‘magic gate’ in 1976 as global warming suddenly became more evident. This present period of change is as far reaching as that at the end of the 18^th century: the industrial revolution.
Relationships, collaboration, trust and social capital are the keys to success in this more complex technological, social, environmental and economic context in which we all live.
Ideas are changing rapidly, long-standing theories and practices are being overturned and new concepts are being developed. The rising concern over sustainability merely adds to the complexity of our daily decision making, so we can add environmental factors to the social and economic challenges of the ‘third way’.
Above all we must now accept and cope with greatly increased complexity at all levels in our lives: individually, at the level of the community, nationally and even internationally.
Do we as individuals and institutions have the capacity to adapt and grow under these circumstances? For that to happen there must be a strong dialogue between institutions and individuals in a changing world.
This isn’t rocket science – it is much harder. If it was easy we would have figured it out by now.

The importance of context

To understand how we got here requires an appreciation of social, economic and intellectual history because the present situation has deep historical and contingent roots.
Each new technological advance and each new cycle of development brought periods of change; the early cycles of the industrial revolution were no exception. It was also a period of great social and economic change.
There are huge sunk costs which limit our present options and determine our course of action. Even if we determined to change our ways and become sustainable overnight (even assuming we knew how to do this) it would take generations to achieve the result.
First, ideas, concepts and values are slow to change; we are much more dependent on the past than many realise.
Second there are many forms of capital that must be considered in addition to the more familiar financial capital. To be sustainable we must balance the growth of financial capital with various other forms of infrastructure development (physical capital) and the critical forms of human, social and knowledge capital.
All of this is set in the context of the use, conservation and restoration of environmental or natural capital.
Third, there are biophysical limitations and restraints. Changes in global and regional stocks and flows of key elements and materials are now evident, and response times may be long. Drastic cuts in global carbon dioxide emissions do not lead to immediate reductions in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere because of the long residence times involved.
Fourth, the interactions between the biosphere and the human-dominated world (sometimes called the anthroposphere) are highly complex and variable in space and time and form a set of complex interacting and adaptive systems.

The concepts of place and human dominion

A series of concepts and values that were centred on progress, domination and exploitation of the natural world and a requirement for certainty and security were appropriate when the world seemed limitless.
Now that we have come to dominate the planet it is high time to understand what is going on at those inconveniently large and small scales and to lift the level of debate around critical issues such as the need for security and the impact of our actions around the globe.
Make no mistake, there is urgent need for action on all fronts: more than 40% of the original planetary biomes have now been destroyed and the figure will reach more than 60% by 2050.
Over half of the world’s major river systems are seriously affected by fragmentation and flow regulation resulting from the construction of dams.
The human population is now about 6 billion. Wealth and longevity are increasing, major diseases have been defeated and the average calorific intake per capita is increasing.
Now we have explored and altered the far corners of the Earth and over-fished the oceans, dominion must give way to negotiation and constraint. There is growing consensus that the next 50 years are going to be critical.
If we can manage the transition we have a chance to set a new course to a more ethical and sustainable future.

The importance of ethics and systems thinking

What I wish to address here is the question: ‘Can we grasp the complexity of it all and, if so, what do we do about it?’ The precautionary principle would suggest that even if the epistemology is flawed, the data are partial and the evidence shaky, we should pay attention to the little we know and do whatever is possible to mitigate the situation even if we fundamentally disagree about the means and the ends.
The only ethical course of action is based on a sense of the other and of inclusive responsibility. We know enough to act. Ethics is about uncertainty, doubt, system thinking and balancing difficult choices. It is about confronting the evidence.
A new environmental ethic is required a universal earth ethic. Humans and the planet have entwined destinies. So these chapters are about ecology, the way it is done and the way it is used.

The importance of water

I have chosen to focus on water because water is the issue for the 21^st century. The global stock of water is finite. Rising population means pressure on water resources, so water is a model for all issues: culture, values, knowledge, management, complexity, policy, governance and society.
Water is also an excellent model for understanding and managing what are called common pool resources – such as the atmosphere, water, fisheries, forestry – resources that are held in common and suffer from particular kinds of management problems which arise from issues around ownership, regulation and institutional difficulties as well as deep cultural, philosophical and ethical considerations.

Externalities

There is clear evidence of human domination of the biosphere. The present concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is at unprecedented levels, at least as far back as the present records go, which is about 650,000 years. We are in uncharted waters and the past is no guide to the future; we are in for surprises.
In economic terms we are beginning to face an exponential increase in ‘externalities’: impacts on, and costs associated with, all those goods and services that are outside the traditional sphere of economic activity. The biosphere is paying the price for a narrow view of growth.
A more broadly sustainable framework is now required as we seek a more ethical and system-based view of the global economy and society. In the end every economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment.
About the only viable solution is going to be an economy of nature in which we take a more inclusive and ethical view.
Until now we have done an excellent job of dominion, and of providing ever-increasing levels of safety and security for our species. We have used up a lot of our stocks of natural and other capital.
We still have a very long way to go to address all the issues of poverty, deprivation and inequality on this planet. We do have much to do, but life is better for more people in many areas.
We now need to lift the level of the debate and comprehend the changing nature and scale of the challenges we face. There have been massive changes in the past 30 years as the postmodern revolution has hit home. And revolution it truly is.