Book Review

 

In Part 4 of Seeking Sustainability in an Age of Complexity Graham Harris tells us that: “The emerging solutions require a new world view.” “The application of physics to the high frequency dynamics of markets (using data on market fluctuations at scales of minutes) has resulted in a discipline called financial physics or ecophysics.” “If this kind of analysis was possible with high-frequency ecological data, then might it be possible to get some early warning of impending abrupt changes in state – a kind of ‘ecolophysics’ perhaps?” “Whatever the future might hold, there is evidence for the importance of the small in determining the properties of the large.” “We have constructed new functional mosaics and flow regimes to suit our needs for production and security. In doing so we have revealed many of the surprising, non-linear properties of these coupled systems – the systems have frequently ‘bitten back’.” “Hysteresis effects, sudden ‘flips’ between states, irreversible step functions and changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events have been recorded in many systems.” “In my view this calls for a revision of the ‘modern’, humanist tradition. The essential values are correct – secular humanism values the ‘other’ – but the ideas about reason, control and predictability require revision.”

 

SEEKING SUSTAINABILITY IN AN AGE OF COMPLEXITY

GRAHAM HARRIS

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS                  2007

PART IV

 

Chapter 22: Emergent Problems and Emerging Solutions

• The emerging solutions require a new world view. The first and most important change in world view has been the acceptance and understanding of a dynamic, non-linear, non-equilibrium view of complex systems; the ways in which the actions of biological and social agents working with simple rules based on local information can produce emergent system-level properties.
• It would be good to be able to have some early warning of system crashes and the approach to thresholds or critical points. We need measures of the precariousness of our present position.

 

Ecolophysics

• We can obtain a useful pointer from the world of finance and economics – and here we are exploiting the analogies between the dynamics of stock markets (driven by the actions of traders working on partial information) and the dynamics of natural systems.
• The application of physics to the high frequency dynamics of markets (using data on market fluctuations at scales of minutes) has resulted in a discipline called financial physics or ecophysics.
• Ecophysics has developed some tools which, their developers claim, can identify a pattern of fluctuations in market prices prior to market crashes.
• If this kind of analysis was possible with high-frequency ecological data, then might it be possible to get some early warning of impending abrupt changes in state – a kind of ‘ecolophysics’ perhaps?
• This approach would require a change in attitude towards sampling and ‘noise’ in ecological data. First it would require the collection of high-frequency (even minute scale) data from large numbers of sites. The technology now exists to do this.
• Second we must look for changing spatial patterns in ecological systems.
• Third, rather than controlling the ‘noise’ by averaging and eliminating it, it would require us to recognize that the ‘noise’ is, in fact, a valuable signal.
• Whatever the future might hold, there is evidence for the importance of the small in determining the properties of the large.

 

Meso-scale mosaics and ‘wicked’ problems

• Perhaps the most important application of such techniques will be to identify the critical source areas and connections between stocks and flows in landscapes and waterscapes so that it might finally be possible to make small-scale, local interventions and asset replacements add up to something more at the regional scale.
• The micro- and the macro-worlds are connected by fractal flow paths and by the emergent properties of the lower-level pandemonium.
• The fundamental properties of landscapes and waterscapes have been revealed by the many (uncontrolled) experiments that we have already done on this planet at the meso-scale. We have cleared land and built cities and towns, fragmented landscapes and waterscapes, altered connectivity, radically changed nutrient inputs, reduced biodiversity and changed trophic structures through hunting and overfishing.
• We have constructed new functional mosaics and flow regimes to suit our needs for production and security. In doing so we have revealed many of the surprising, non-linear properties of these coupled systems – the systems have frequently ‘bitten back’.
• Hysteresis effects, sudden ‘flips’ between states, irreversible step functions and changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events have been recorded in many systems.
• History shows us that it is not easy to manage integrated environmental, social and economic systems at these scales.
• Irreversible changes due to combinations of deforestation, soil loss, erosion and climate change have defeated human societies in the past.
• There is much more surprise and uncertainty than we accept, even now, and we do not have a good record of adaptability and personal and institutional flexibility in response.
• This is a contingent and uncertain world of ‘becoming’ rather than ‘being’.

 

Emerging solutions

• In my view this calls for a revision of the ‘modern’, humanist tradition. The essential values are correct – secular humanism values the ‘other’ – but the ideas about reason, control and predictability require revision.
• There is more risk and uncertainty in daily life than most would like to admit. So more data will help, but it will not provide all the answers.
• Things do indeed ‘bite back’; the unexpected properties of complex systems add a whole new dimension to risk management. This, perhaps, is one of the fundamental reasons why many human societies have failed in the past.
• What has been done around the globe time and time again is the destruction of the larger species that provide structure and context for other species.
• Deforestation is still rife, riparian vegetation is lost from rivers, seagrass beds and coral reefs are being destroyed.
• We have replaced these highly patterned three-dimensional ecosystems with simplified and, for us, more productive systems, which effectively mine resources for our use.

 

Complex valuations

• The problems of complex valuations are nowhere more difficult than in the construction of regional, system-level, water benefits accounts. This brings together all the problems discussed in this book:

v  The role of climate and variability in rainfall and runoff, and the existence of abrupt changes and changes in frequency and magnitude of extreme events,

v  The competing demands and values of ‘green’ versus ‘blue’ water in rural and urban settings and the effects of existing land use mosaics on the coupling between fluxes at a range of scales,

v  The role of land use change in influencing the balance of ‘green’ and ‘blue’ water and the role of ‘green’ water in the provision of ecosystem services of various kinds,

v  The ability not only to account for the effect of present land use change patterns but also to predict the effects of future management alternatives in the form of new mosaics of land use, water and energy use and infrastructure construction,

v  The trade-offs between incommensurate measures and the value sets of various benefit types and domains; social, economic, environmental,

v  The trade-offs between various forms of capital and the question of ‘strong’ sustainability and intergenerational equity,

v  The use of deliberative, regulatory, markets and other instruments and governance mechanisms to provide a more sustainable use pattern, which values capitals other than profit and security of supply.

• Poor information, poor long-term memories, denial, incommensurate values and a philosophy of discounting evidence of deleterious change (‘after all, we don’t know for certain, do we …?) frequently leads to the multiple prisoners’ dilemmas and ‘the tragedy of the commons’.
• To trade more effectively in environmental goods and services we need to graft a green thumb onto the ‘invisible hand’ of the market.

 

Managing complex entities

 

Chapter 23: Avoiding Collapse